| 1. Identificação | |
| Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Revista Científica (Journal Article) |
| Site | mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br |
| Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identificador | 8JMKD3MGP5W34M/3FA459L |
| Repositório | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/11.26.16.52.48 |
| Última Atualização | 2014:04.15.14.00.06 (UTC) administrator |
| Repositório de Metadados | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/11.26.16.52.49 |
| Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2018:06.04.03.14.10 (UTC) administrator |
| DOI | 10.3354/cr01160 |
| ISSN | 0936-577X |
| Rótulo | scopus 2013-11 |
| Chave de Citação | MarengoValvObre:2013:ObPrCh |
| Título | Observed and projected changes in rainfall extremes in the metropolitan area of São Paulo  |
| Projeto | FAPESP-Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil and Strategies for the Adaptation Options project (Ref. 2008/58161-1), FAPESP-NERC; Impacts of climate extremes on ecosystems and human health in Brazil: PULSE-Brazil (Ref. 2011/51843- 2) |
| Ano | 2013 |
| Data de Acesso | 18 maio 2024 |
| Tipo de Trabalho | journal article |
| Tipo Secundário | PRE PI |
| Número de Arquivos | 1 |
| Tamanho | 10227 KiB |
| 2. Contextualização | |
| Autor | 1 Marengo, José Antonio 2 Valverde, Maria C. 3 Obregon, Guillermo O. |
| Grupo | 1 CST-CST-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR |
| Afiliação | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Federal University of ABC (UFABC) 3 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) |
| Endereço de e-Mail do Autor | 1 jose.marengo@inpe.br |
| Endereço de e-Mail | marcelo.pazos@inpe.br |
| Revista | Climate Research |
| Volume | 57 |
| Número | 1 |
| Páginas | 61-72 |
| Nota Secundária | A1 A1 A2 A2 |
| Histórico (UTC) | 2018-06-04 03:14:10 :: administrator -> :: 2013 |
| 3. Conteúdo e estrutura | |
| É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz |
| Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido |
| Transferível | 1 |
| Tipo do Conteúdo | External Contribution |
| Tipo de Versão | publisher |
| Palavras-Chave | climate assessment dynamical downscaling emissions scenarios extreme precipitation events heavy precipitation metropolitan area natural climate variabilities total precipitation climate change climate models floods uncertainty analysis rain climate modeling climate variation downscaling extreme event flash flood flooding future prospect landslide metropolitan area precipitation prediction trend analysis uncertainty analysis urbanization weather forecasting |
| Resumo | Changes in rainfall extremes and flooding are becoming more frequent in many countries, particularly in large cities where people and assets are concentrated. In the Metropolitan Area of the city of São Paulo (MASP) region, heavy or extreme precipitation events have important effects on society. Flash floods and landslides, associated with intense, but often brief, rainfall events, may be the most destructive of extreme events. Observations since the mid-1930s in the MASP region have shown significant increases in total and heavy rainfall and decreases in light rain. This was probably due to natural climate variability, but with some signals of the urbanization effect, especially during the last 40 yr. Here projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in the MASP region were derived from the Eta-CPTEC 40 km regional model nested in the HadCM3 global model, with 4 available realizations of the global model for the A1B emissions scenario to the end of the 21st century. Trends were assessed for significance using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. Projections, based on percentiles and on the number of days with rainfall above a certain limit, suggested: (a) an increase in total precipitation, (b) an increase in heavy precipitation and in the contribution to total precipitation from more intense rainfall events, and (c) the possibility of longer dry periods separating days with intense rain in the MASP region. The trends were stronger and more significant in the second half of the 21st century. We are aware that dynamical downscaling may not provide information at the weather station level and that climate modeling does not resolve all uncertainties. However, we believe that this exercise enables climate assessments that, in time, can be used for general public information. |
| Área | CST |
| Arranjo | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > COCST > Observed and projected... |
| Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar |
| Conteúdo da Pasta source | não têm arquivos |
| Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos |
| 4. Condições de acesso e uso | |
| URL dos dados | http://mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br/ibi/8JMKD3MGP5W34M/3FA459L |
| URL dos dados zipados | http://mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br/zip/8JMKD3MGP5W34M/3FA459L |
| Idioma | en |
| Arquivo Alvo | c057p061.pdf |
| Grupo de Usuários | administrator marcelo.pazos@inpe.br |
| Grupo de Leitores | administrator marcelo.pazos@inpe.br |
| Visibilidade | shown |
| Política de Arquivamento | denypublisher48 allowfinaldraft |
| Permissão de Leitura | allow from all |
| Permissão de Atualização | não transferida |
| 5. Fontes relacionadas | |
| Repositório Espelho | iconet.com.br/banon/2006/11.26.21.31 |
| Unidades Imediatamente Superiores | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F3T29H |
| Lista de Itens Citando | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/10.19.20.40 4 |
| Divulgação | WEBSCI |
| Acervo Hospedeiro | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/09.26.14.25.20 |
| 6. Notas | |
| Campos Vazios | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel format isbn lineage mark month nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url |